Early estimates for the Christmas box office have been lowered for many movies after traffic was lighter than expected on Saturday as consumers instead focused on holiday preparations and other activities. The hope now is that moviegoing will pick up in earnest once presents are unwrapped on Monday. (Hollywood studios never like it when Dec. 25 falls on a Monday since it messes with the weekend).
Either way, James Wan’s Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom is headed for one of the lowest starts in the history of the DC Cinematic Universe with a projected four-day domestic gross of $40 million, including $28 million for the three days. The good news: It can still claim a No. 1 finish. Overseas, it took in $80.1 million from 72 markets — including a promising $30.4 million in China, where it turned it the biggest start of the year for a Hollywood superhero pic.
The big-budget tentpole, reteaming Wan and star Jason Momoa, has been largely rebuked by critics and only earned a B CinemaScore from audiences. The sequel, which faced a troubled road to the big screen, marks the end of an era as new DC chiefs James Gunn and Peter Safran are set to reboot the DC Universe with 2025’s Superman: Legacy. (Momoa himself has all but said there won’t be an Aquaman threequel.)
In 2018, the first Aquaman was the king of the year-end holiday when swimming to a three-day opening of $67.9 million over the Dec. 21-23 weekend. Through Christmas Day — a Tuesday that year — its domestic tally was a rousing $105.4 million (that included several million in special sneak peeks the previous weekend). The movie went on to earn $335.1 million domestically and $1.15 billion globally, the best showing ever for a DCEU title, not adjusted for inflation.
Wan’s movie lends further credence to the superhero fatigue theory. Even the most ardent fanboys are weary. Aquaman 2 is also trailing the recent $46.1 million opening of box office debacle The Marvels from rival Marvel Studios.
A slew of other films also opened Friday, and the Warners empire is feeling particularly giving. The studio has no fewer than three year-end holiday event movies: Aquaman 2; Wonka, which opened last weekend; and The Color Purple, which opens Dec. 25. It’s a daring feat, to say the least, as two of those are musicals).
In yet another test of the appetite for theatrical animated fare, and especially original stories, Illumination and Universal are contributing Migration to the holiday mix for families.
The animated tentpole, which earned an A CinemaScore, is expected to earn $12.3 million for the weekend proper from 3,761 theaters and $17.2 million for the four days, ahead of what some tracking services had predicted. The movie is doing muted business so far overseas for a projected foreign tally of $22 million from 43 markets through Sunday.
The final verdict for Migration won’t be rendered until New Year’s weekend as there is no more lucrative stretch of the moviegoing year than the week between Christmas and New Year’s.
Migration will come in No. 3 behind Aquaman and Wonka, as the Timothée Chalamet starrer is projected to gross a pleasing $30 million for the four days.
Columbia/Sony’s edgy romantic-comedy Anyone but You is unwrapping a fourth-place finish with an estimated $8.8 million to $9 million from 3,055 theaters for the four days. The pic, starring Sydney Sweeney and Glen Powell, earned a B+ CinemaScore. (No studio likes anything other than some variation of an A grade for most movies.)
Females make up nearly 80 percent of all patrons buying tickets to see the rom-com, while males are making up at least 66 percent of A24’s Zac Efron-led wrestling family drama The Iron Claw, another title on the Christmas marquee movie. Iron Claw is pacing to open to $8 million, also ahead of tracking.
At the specialty box office, Searchlight Picture opened Andrew Haigh’s acclaimed All of Us Strangers in four locations in New York and Los Angeles. The awards contender is looking at an estimated stellar location average of $43,000 for four days, including $33,034 for the three-day weekend, one of the best showings of the year.
Dec. 24, 8 a.m.: Updated with revised weekend estimates.
This story was originally published Dec. 23 at 8:23 a.m.
