The top three films — Venom: The Last Dance, The Best Christmas Pageant Ever and Heretic — in a Veterans Day weekend sans a major tentpole, overperformed this weekend.
The biggest eyebrow raiser is that Lionsgate/Kingdom Story’s Best Christmas Pageant Ever had a better than anticipated hold ($2.9M vs. $3.3M) on Saturday, putting the Dallas Jenkins-directed family movie neck-in-neck with Heretic for a No. 2 upset with $11M apiece. Lionsgate is calling No. 2 at $11.1M.
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Venom: The Last Dance‘s third weekend is $16.2M, -37%. With all the great holds for this threequel, why didn’t Sony just give Christmas a potential fanboy tentpole and play this to a massive multiple instead of the thrice moved Kraven the Hunter, which is opening on Dec. 13? Odds are that the less than $130M R-rated Marvel deep universe title needs a Christmas 5x multiple more than Venom 3. Imax brought in $1.5M on the Tom Hardy movie for a running total in their auditoriums of $10M.
Heretic‘s opening at $11M is better than A24’s other genre titles Midsommar ($6.5M 3-day, $10.9M 5-day), Witch ($8.8M), this past summer’s MaXXXine ($6.7M) and only 19% off from Hereditary‘s $13.5M start. Heretic is the only genre movie in the marketplace until A24 opens Y2K on the first weekend of December.
Carrying the social media push for Heretic per Relish Mix were co-stars Sophie Thatcher at 320K fans, as well as Chloe East at 280K fans. The reach was measured at 60M followers ahead of release, which is -60% behind first installment horror-thriller genre norms (read, Lionsgate/Blumhouse’s Imaginary had close to 125M followers per release). However, the viral repost rate on Heretic trailers was a very strong 23:1. The chatter on social media is that Hugh Grant fans have been looking forward to his villainous side after falling in love with his ’90s leading romantic man.
Christmas Pageant‘s cast did heavy promotions of the pic across the heartland, which is where all its money came from. Not just big outlets, but local print, broadcast and radio appearances. Lionsgate, Kingdom Story Company and Jenkins activated faith-based fans of the latter’s The Chosen across social media channels and at the filmmaker’s ChosenCon. As is de rigueur with faith-based films, Christmas Pageant was screened widely to faith-based leaders to spread the word to congregations. Again, if its projections hold up, Christmas Pageant is the second-best opening for the box office-beaten 2024 Lionsgate after this past summer’s The Strangers: Chapter 1 ($11.8M).
Everything is getting a bounce today into tomorrow with Veterans Day falling on a Monday and 47% K-12 schools out, and 32% college according to Comscore. Still the mind boggles why a bigger film didn’t take advantage of a four-day weekend. What a missed opportunity. Next year, even though Veterans Day falls on a Tuesday, we look to be in better shape hopefully dollars-wise with 20th Century Studios’ Predator: Badlands and Focus Features’ Yorgos Lanthimos-Emma Stone-Jesse Plemons reteam, Bugonia playing into the holiday. Overall 3-day weekend is estimated at $74M, which is $300k more than what the marketplace did last weekend and -15% off from a year ago when The Marvels crashed to the lowest MCU debut ever at $46.1M.
Meanwhile, what was on many minds last night in Hollywood was how big Wicked is going to be when it opens on Nov. 22, the movie dropping several wonderful jaws. I don’t believe that $80M-$85M projection for a minute. This is clearly $100M+ in its 3-day, and if you’re an Ariana Grande fan, this movie definitely delivers. As one studio insider beamed to me last night, “She’s Barbra Streisand!” We always expected Grande to be on note and crystal clear at the top of her range, however, she is sublimely funny in the film, and keeps a great stride with the 2x Oscar-nominated Cynthia Erivo who is also mind-blowingly dynamic. Neither should be counted out of the actress and/or supporting actress Oscar categories. Some sources have told me that Wicked should be concerned about running into Moana 2 over Thanksgiving, which is expected to deliver $135M. However, I think it’s Moana 2 who should be worried. Nonetheless, there’s a horde of cash for both movies over Thanksgiving; clearly a double feature night for women over the holiday.
Other shoutouts:
Roadside Attractions & Lionsgate launched Artist Equity’s Small Things Like These, starring Cillian Murphy as a devoted father and coal merchant who discovers startling secrets kept by the convent in his town, along with some shocking truths of his own, rang up $585K at 799 locations off reviews of 94% certified fresh and 88% audience meter.
Venom: The Last Dance (Sony) 3,905 (-226) theaters, Fri $3.9M (-40%) Sat $7.1M Sun $5.1M, 3-day $16.2M (-37%), Total $114.8M/Wk 3
Best Christmas Pageant Ever (LG) 3,020, Fri $5M Sat $3.3M Sun $2.8M 3-day $11.1M/Wk 1
Heretic (A24) 3,221 theaters, Fri $4.3M Sat $3.8M Sun $2.8M 3-day $11M/Wk 1
The Wild Robot (Uni) 3,051 (-186) Fri $1.48M (-21%), 3-day $6M (-19%), Total $130.2M/Wk 7
Smile 2 (Par) 2,822 (-413) theaters Fri $1.42M (-29%) Sat $2.1M Sun $1.4M , 3-day $5M (-26%), Total $60.5M/Wk 4
Conclave (Foc) 2,283 (+487) theaters, Fri $1.16M (-22%) Sat $1.7M Sun $1.2M 3-day $4.1M (-19%), Total $21.5M/Wk 3
Anora (NEON) 1,104 (+851 theater), Fri $885K Sat $920K Sun, 3-day $2.45M (+36%), Total $7.2M/Wk 4
Here (Sony/Mir) 2,732 (+85) theaters, Fri $725K Sat $1M Sun $700K, 3-day $2.42M (-50%)/Total $9.5M/Wk 2
We Live in Time (A24) 1,865 (-1099) theaters, Fri $701K (-34%) Sat $862K Sun $646K 3-day $2.2M (-36%), Total $21.8M/Wk 5
Terrifier 3 (Icon/Cinev) 1,563 (-363) theaters, Fri $411K (-56%) Sat $641K Sun $417K 3-day $1.47M (-56%), Total $53.3M/Wk 5
